碳达峰碳中和能源结构能源消费模式转型

中文关键词碳达峰碳中和能源结构能源消费模式转型

英文关键词carbon peakingcarbon neutralizationenergy structureenergy consumption modetransformation

作者

单位

E-mail

李辉

国家能源集团科学技术研究院有限公司清洁高效燃煤发电与污染控制国家重点实验室, 南京 210023

国电环境保护研究院有限公司国家环境保护大气物理模拟与污染控制重点实验室, 南京 210031

庞博

中国气象局科技与气候变化司, 北京 100081

朱法华

国家能源集团科学技术研究院有限公司清洁高效燃煤发电与污染控制国家重点实验室, 南京 210023

国电环境保护研究院有限公司国家环境保护大气物理模拟与污染控制重点实验室, 南京 210031

孙雪丽

国家能源集团科学技术研究院有限公司清洁高效燃煤发电与污染控制国家重点实验室, 南京 210023

国电环境保护研究院有限公司国家环境保护大气物理模拟与污染控制重点实验室, 南京 210031

徐静馨

国家能源集团科学技术研究院有限公司清洁高效燃煤发电与污染控制国家重点实验室, 南京 210023

国电环境保护研究院有限公司国家环境保护大气物理模拟与污染控制重点实验室, 南京 210031

王圣

国家能源集团科学技术研究院有限公司清洁高效燃煤发电与污染控制国家重点实验室, 南京 210023

国电环境保护研究院有限公司国家环境保护大气物理模拟与污染控制重点实验室, 南京 210031

中文摘要

选取2020年世界能源消费量累积占比达80%的前23个国家作为研究对象，通过从一次能源清洁化率、化石能源清洁利用率和电能占终端能源消费率角度对其能源消费结构进行对比研究，从单位GDP能耗、人均能耗和单位国土面积能耗角度，结合产业结构和分部门能源消费构成，对其能源消费强度进行深入分析，探讨各国在社会经济运行与生产生活中的能源消费模式，提出能源消费自然碳汇承载负荷比概念，指出我国在碳达峰与碳中和目标下能源消费模式转型面临的优势与挑战.结果表明，我国一次能源清洁化率、发电用能占比、化石能源清洁化利用率和电能占终端能耗比分别达到15.90%、53.48%、37.51%和26.54%，均在世界主要能源消费国家中处于前列，已经架构起良好的能源集约化和清洁化利用结构基础；非工农业能源消费占比尤其是仅为14.09%的交通能源占比在主要能源消费国中最低，已经形成了具有相对优势的绿色低碳能源消费模式；基于产业结构优化潜在的总体能源生产率还有较大提升空间；但相对较短的碳达峰与碳中和目标期对清洁能源发展速度与规模提出了巨大挑战，碳排放约束下的国际形势对我国通过优化调整产业结构实现降碳目标也增加了难度.

英文摘要

The top 23 countries with energy consumption accounting for 80% of the worldwide total in 2020 were selected as the research objects for this study。 The energy consumption structure of these countries has been compared and studied from the proportion of clean energy in primary energy, the clean utilization rate of fossil energy, and the proportion of electric energy in terminal energy consumption, and the characteristics of energy consumption intensity were also analyzed based on the energy consumption per unit GDP, capital, and unit land area。

The energy consumption patterns of various countries in social-economic operation, production, and life were also discussed, combined with the characteristics of industrial structure and subsector energy consumption。 The concept of natural carbon sink load ratio of energy consumption was put forward, and the advantages and challenges of energy consumption mode transformation under carbon peak and carbon neutralization goals in China were identified and analyzed。 The results showed that:the proportion of clean energy in primary energy, the proportion of energy consumption for power generation, the clean utilization rate of fossil energy, and the proportion of electric energy in terminal energy consumption in China were 15。

90%, 53。48%, 37。51%, and 26。54%,respectively,all of which were in the forefront among the major energy-consuming countries in the world。 China has built a favorable structural foundation for energy-intensive and clean utilization and formed a green and low-carbon energy consumption model; the proportion of non-industrial and agricultural energy consumption, especially that of transportation energy consumption, were both the lowest among major energy-consuming countries, and there is still much room for improvement in overall energy productivity based on the optimization of industrial structure。

However, the relatively short carbon peak and neutralization target period poses a great challenge to the development speed and scale of clean energy to China, and the international situation under the constraint of carbon emission also increases the difficulty for China to achieve the carbon reduction goal by optimizing and adjusting the industrial structure。

您是第50364656位访客

主办单位：中国科学院生态环境研究中心 单位地址：北京市海淀区双清路18号

电话： －62941102邮编：100085E-mail：

本系统由北京勤云科技发展有限公司设计京ICP备05002858号-2